Update 11/24/20: Fold has released more info on their bitcoin earning rewards debit cards. (HT: Phil)
The debit cards come with one of the most complicated reward programs that I have ever seen; a rewards program that will challenge you to find value.
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November 2020 Update
Fold will release two bitcoin rewards earning debit cards – a “Premium” $150 annual fee card and an “Intro” no annual fee version (note: the “Intro” card is not free as it requires a $21 one time activation fee).
This is a partial snapshot of the details:
There are a lot of things that make analyzing the value of these cards challenging. For instance, you might quickly net out the annual fee and the signup bonus to get a first year cost of $100 on the the premium card, but the signup bonus is paid $4.16/month and only in months with $500 in cumulative direct deposits. Analysis is sort of buried a thousand footnotes deep.
Rewards Structure
Most rewards cards provide a flat earning rate (e.g. 1%) on purchases. Some cards might spice it up with higher rates for certain types of transactions (category bonuses). This structure is easy to understand, and it’s clear to see and calculate the value earned.
Fold has gone in a different direction. They are not providing a flat earning rate on all transactions. The reported average reward rate is actually some fuzzy math that is looking at an expected average rewards rate across all card holders (and involves estimating the value of all qualifying purchases and rewards for a period of time – [this sounds quite difficult to do]).
As the rewards program is currently structured, after you complete a debit card purchase you win one of eight potential prizes (each with a different probability of occurring), the following are the rules for the premium card:
So, if you were treating the Fold card like a normal rewards card – make transactions and then check your statement at the end of the month – you would only receive cash back on about 20% of your transactions. The effective average rewards rates:
- Premium Card: (2% Earn Rate) x (20% of the time) = 0.4%
- Intro Card: (1% Earn Rate) x (20% of the time) = 0.2%
Those rates aren’t nearly as exciting as the average rewards rates reported. But it’s not the end of the story, you can try to find value in the prizes that are rewarded the other 80% of the time. My intuition says that might involve low dollar transactions. I mean if you really have a 0.02% chance of winning 1 BTC on any given transaction that’s an EV of $3.20 per transaction that would be a great return on the purchase of a banana (I don’t know if the 1 BTC continues to be replaced at a 0.02% rate during the time period).
It’s sort of an optimization problem to figure out how best to use the card. One thing to note, Fold says that they will frequently change the rewards program (and may cancel it at anytime) so the challenge of finding value would be ongoing.
A few elements that I pulled from the terms:
- PIN debit purchases, and outgoing ACH payment or transfers to a third party appear to qualify as purchases
- Transaction limits: $15,000/month, $2,500/day
- Reward redemption has a 2% fee
The Announcement
Fold has announced that they plan to release a Bitcoin earning Visa debit card in the third quarter of 2020.
Card Details
The card details are still hazy, but the following has been released/reported:
- Card: Prepaid Visa debit card issued by Sutton Bank
Card Network: Visa (Fold is part of the Visa Fast Track Program)ÂReward Structure:“1% to 2% back in Bitcoin for any purchase they make” (as reported in this Fortune article)“debit card but has the rewards levels you’d expect from a credit card” (as reported in this Coindesk article)Signature vs. PIN-Based: Unknown?
Fees: Unknown?Other Requirements: Unknown?Minimum Balance, Transaction Requirement?, ….
Planned Release: 2020 Q3 (July)- Metal Card: Yes [weight not yet disclosed 🙂 ]
We will update this section as new information is released/questions are answered by the Fold Team
Waitlist Details
You can join the waitlist with just an email address. If you use another user’s referral link it bumps them up higher on the waitlist.
Direct Link | DoC Referral Page
After joining the waitlist, if you download the Fold App your account will be credited with 30,000 Satoshis (~$2.19 as of 2020-04)
- This is a relatively small bonus for downloading a fintech app [(1 Satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC), so 0.0003 BTC x $7,251/BTC = $2.18]
- and you won’t be able to cash out until reaching 50K Satoshis (0.0005 BTC [$3.67])
- but the credit can be used towards a gift card purchase though minimum gift card amounts are generally in the $10 – $25 range
Our Verdict
Must defer a verdict until more details of the card are known.
Our expectations aren’t overly high, given the state of the economy/investment, and the failure of a number of similar products (Zero Card, …).
Also Fold seems to offer fairly weak promotions, often too small to warrant sharing. The Fold App/Card has a number of interesting features from a promotional/stacking perspective, but the numbers may not make these features useful in reality, sort of promotional fools gold.
Maybe this is just a startup being conservative with its capital until it reaches a bigger/more growth-marketing focused funding round. Or perhaps you see a better angle have a better use/potential use for the app and card.
We looked at a few specific elements of Bitcoin/crypto reward earning cards in this post announcing that BlockFi has a Bitcoin earning credit card in the pipeline,
Other Fold App Products
Fold App Spin To Win Game
The Fold App features a daily spin to win game.
I can’t find any value here and don’t think it’s worth playing.
If you consider only the virtual currency prizes, I calculate an expected value of about 2.5 cents per daily spin.
EV = 0.03% * 1,000,000 sats + 25% * 100 sats = 300 sats + 25 sats = 325 sats = ~0.025 USD (2.5 cents)
That’s just not enough to tempt me to play.
Fold App Discounted Gift Cards
The Fold App allows you to buy discounted gift cards where the discount comes in the form of Bitcoin back.
I assume there are no clear gift card reselling arbitrage plays, but I’m not familiar with how the Fold App gift card discounts compare to what’s available with other alternatives. If I were to research comparisons, I would start with Chuck’s Complete List of Methods to Buy Gift Cards with Discounts and Bonus Rewards.
All the Best!
History
11/24/20: More card details released
09/10/20: jackgopack4 relays that the debit card waitlist will close Oct. 9th. Still a crap-shoot at this point as we don’t know if the card will be any good. [This must have a been a temporary closure as the
April 2020: Posted
